Our findings suggest that neoclassicism's basic formalities are just sufficient to select the hyperbolic form as uniquely capable of measuring macroeconomic potential by the utility parameters upon which neoclassical causality operates. We submit that an objective measure of utility, one that behaves on the dimension of time as true parameters must, would constitute a scientific achievement that neither Karl Popper nor Imre Lakatos (rest their souls) would disparage.
In all, the better basis upon which to disparage economics as pseudoscience might be its immunity to falsification of its mere assertions by direct counterexample, e.g.: SFEcon's quantification of general optimality and demonstration of a stable, goal seeking dynamic in which optimality is revealed. From our perspective, economics is not science simply because economists prefer that it not be one.
As claimed for the UK experiment documented above, we have no reason to suppose that hyperbolic utility parameters would be other than consistent in time and reliably predicted by naïve time-series analyses. If these are satisfactory indicia that utility parameters can be measured, and are likely to behave as ‘parameters’ must, we might usefully speculate a bit further as to how this epitome of economic potential might function in support of a truly experimental science.
Our demonstrations with Model 0 are not realistic in that 1) they originated in a perfectly poised equilibrium upheld by optimality; 2) instantaneous stimulation is then applied at one or two points; and 3) all parameters were then held constant while the economic state reconstituted itself at a new optimum.
A more likely condition for the utility space would be one of ongoing continuous change at most of its vertices, reflecting generally changing technique, resource discovery and depletion, demographic shifts, etc. A precise optimum would never be allowed in such circumstances. The situation would be analogous to a galaxy in orbit around a black hole: the system is bounded; but approach to the singularity is continually put off because the focus of the orbit is in itself motion, thereby continuously imparting an impulse to the system it controls. Given that we know the quantification of galactic movements is possible within the dynamics of physics, can we accept that the quantification of macroeconomic adjustment must remain beyond the dynamics of economics?
Further experimentation along these lines would have to be sanctioned by an international body such the United Nations, World Bank, Bank of International Settlements, or the International Monetary Fund. Given the depth of international trade, neoclassical theory is only going to be vindicated by global utility parameters. Unification of the profuse definitions of sectors and commodities offered by national statistical agencies can only proceed via international conventions such as those cited. And a truly global input/output array can only be assembled by a central authority.
We might further imagine that contributions to the array can be developed voluntarily from remote and discrete sources. The central authority would define a database to receive the history of physical exchanges, and audit contributions from specialists in a given sector, period, or locale. Empty areas of the database would indicate worthwhile areas of investigation; and formal certification of contributions that can be featured on curricula vitae would likely suffice as inducements to investigate.
Modern communications technology would allow instantaneous access to mankind’s current knowledge about the physical amount of good J being acquired by sector I of economy K at time t RIJKt. The value of UIJKt to investment decisions would assure that up-to-date utility parameters would be continuously computed, projected, and acted upon at diffuse points throughout the world — hopefully to the end of aborting dangerous misallocations of capital.
Such are the public benefits of a science that has established a workable causal hypothesis before going off in search of things to measure.